A new report suggests that the country’s real estate market will experience an uptick in prices by 1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to 2025.
However, that is only half the story, as the same report predicts a downturn for Metro Vancouver and Greater Toronto, as Canada’s two most expensive cities are going against the trend.
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The real estate firm Royal LePage says that the aggregate home price in Vancouver is expected to drop by 3.5 per cent to $1,147,868 in comparison to the previous year.
A price drop for a single-family detached property is forecasted at even 5 per cent, which translates to a median price tag of $1,610,915.
Condominiums will likely decrease by 3 per cent to $712,853.
The reason for Vancouver’s downward market is a high supply of homes in the area, which drives down prices.
Additionally, a higher number of availabilities is an incentive for potential buyers to wait rather than to decide quickly on a real estate purchase.
“Sales remain well below the region’s ten-year average, and growing inventory levels are sitting longer as buyers hold back,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker at the real estate firm.
“There is little urgency for buyers to move quickly. In this environment, many feel comfortable waiting, watching, and weighing their options before making a decision.”
He adds that concerns about the broader economy also keep potential buyers from opening their wallets for a new home.
The situation, Ryalls explains, pushes move-up buyers into a “chicken-and-egg” situation; they want to buy a new property but can not find a buyer for their current home.
This, again, contributes to an increase in supply in the Lower Mainland.
Royal LePage states that an interest rate cut could help create some momentum.
“Looking ahead, another rate cut or two could give the market the lift it needs, although that seems unlikely now,” Ryalls said.
The Bank of Canada will announce their decision on interest rates on Wednesday, yet it is not expected that the central bank managers will move from the current 2.25 per cent.
The only other real estate market in the country that is forecasted to decline in prices – and therefore going against the nation’s trend – is the Greater Toronto area.
The aggregate price tag in Canada’s largest metropolitan area is expected to drop by 4.5 per cent year over year to $1,054,129.
Home prices in Calgary and Edmonton, on the other hand, will climb by 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively.
Montreal and Quebec City are cities with the largest price increase, with an expected 5 per cent in Quebec’s largest city and 12 per cent in its capital.
