A researcher at Simon Fraser University is warning of a “global economic catastrophe” as war in the Middle East threatens to further raise the price of gas and air travel.

Parsa Alirezaei with the university’s Centre for Comparative Muslim Studies says the economic impacts will depend on the war’s severity and length, as the Persian Gulf is a global energy provider.

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“They supply about 30 per cent of the world’s oil and natural gas needs,” said Alirezaei. “So in terms of the energy market’s impact and as a sort of pillar of the economy and markets worldwide…the inflationary pressure it kind of induces is significant.”

Oil prices rose between $5-$10 U.S. per barrel Monday as fear from U.S.-Israeli attacks continued. Alirezaei says there could be catastrophic impacts if oil refineries in the Gulf are struck, which he says could bring prices well into the triple digits.

Canadians are also facing increased costs at the airport. Alirezaei says the Gulf, especially Dubai, is a major logistics hub for air travel and provides jet fuel to Europe.

“Canadians also rely a lot on travel to Europe and European carriers…if they have less access to jet fuel, we will also see a significant price increase in terms of flight.”

“We’re talking about the logistics around cargo shipments around the world…and in terms of passenger travel. These are two big impacts that will reverberate around the whole system if it’s disrupted. Somewhere, you’re going to see these major carriers that are a part of cargo shipments, and global supply and value chains have their impact there in terms of supplying transportation logistics…but you’re also going to see displaced passengers throughput.”

Overall, Alirezaei says Canadian consumers and producers can expect higher prices. He says Canada is at risk of facing an affordability crisis unlike any other in recent memory.

However, from a geo-economic perspective, Canada may have a “secret” gain from the war as Alberta oil producers benefit from higher international prices.

“So Albertan oil producers and anybody associated with the Alberta oil industry is going to see, kind of, a better economic position overall….and this includes the Canadian federal government, because they do receive some royalties from that too.”

Alirezaei says he will be keeping an eye on how long the conflict lasts and its implications on American politics.