VICTORIA — While the New Democrats prepare to release a revised cost estimate for the World Cup in B.C., they continue to claim a reputed $1 billion in benefits from hosting the seven soccer games.

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The latest round in the game of understating costs and overstating benefits was triggered by the recent report from the federal parliamentary budget office on government financial support for hosting the men’s World Cup.

Vaughn Palmer: World-Cup-boosting B.C. NDP ignores caveats in report on potential economic benefit Back to video

It pegged the cost for all levels of government — federal, provincial, local — at $578 million, or $83 million for each of the seven games here in B.C.

The report was immediately discounted by cabinet minister Anne Kang, whose Ministry of Tourism, Arts, Culture and Sport oversees B.C.’s role in hosting the FIFA event.

She accused the budget watchdog of relying on out-of-date information in drawing conclusions.

“I would not take the numbers that the PBO has provided as a fact,” Kang told reporters last week. “It was old data that was from last year.”

Yet the federal office chose from the mid-range of the provincial government’s own cost estimate. This time last year, the province admitted the tab could go as high as $624 million, or almost $90 million a game.

Kang said the province was working with the federal government, the city and other partners to provide an updated costing before the end of the month.

Was Kang saying that the revised estimate would be lower than the one in the budget officer’s report?

No, she wasn’t saying that.

“When the numbers are released, you will know,” said Kang. “What I would like British Columbians to know is that this is not just a one-time investment on the seven games that we have here, but it is a long-term investment.

“In the next five years, we’ll be able to see more than one million more visitors come and more than $1 billion of visitor spending here.”

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The $1 billion claim also figured prominently in Premier David Eby’s most recent defence of FIFA spending, delivered earlier this month at an event marking World Cup related improvements to B.C. Place.

In light of faltering demand for hotel rooms and tickets for the fan zone, did Eby think the “FIFA juice is worth the squeeze on taxpayers?”

He did. “Our projections are about a billion dollars of impact.”

The $1 billion claim derives from a 12 page assessment of the economic impact of the World Cup over the years 2026-31, released in 2024 by B.C. Stats and the tourism ministry.

The report claimed that the World Cup would deliver a $1 billion boost in retail sales and provincial GDP over the next five years. It also forecast that one million additional visitors would come to B.C. over the same period as a result of the province hosting seven soccer games.

While the New Democrats seized on those numbers — $1 billion in sales! One million visitors! — they ignored cautionary passages in the report.

The authors said they “could not validate the major assumption that a total of 262,125 visitors (45 per cent from outside of Canada and the U.S.) would attend the games.”

They also discounted the claim that more than 18,000 jobs could be generated. “The event may not result in a large net increase of long-term employment, but rather a short-term increase.”

More fanciful was the claim that hosting seven World Cup matches would lure one million tourists to B.C. over the next five years.

Vancouver is one of 16 host cities. You would have to believe that a significant number of foreigners watching the TV feed from B.C. Place of, say, Egypt against New Zealand on June 21, would decide to visit the city in the next five years.

The economic impact assessment was typical of the reports that governments rustle up to justify decisions they have already made to host international sporting events.

B.C. has also cited an ambitious economic impact forecast from FIFA itself.

“FIFA’s own economic impact assessment covers the period June 2023 to August 2026 and estimates that preparing for and hosting the tournament could contribute $1.7 billion in economic benefits for B.C. That includes a $980 million increase to GDP and $610 million in labour income.”

Big surprise that FIFA would produce such claims. But if those targets are not met, it would pose no risk to FIFA, a point underscored in the B.C. economic impact report: “The World Cup event itself is not expected to directly generate gross domestic produce or significant revenue for the province as the majority of direct revenues will go to FIFA.”

The NDP government’s first cost estimate for hosting the World Cup was $240 million. This time last year, it had almost tripled. The release due later this week will likely push it past $100 million a game.

Worth recalling that early in the NDP term of office, then-premier John Horgan balked at hosting the World Cup because FIFA wanted “a blank cheque.”

There being no sign that FIFA changed its grasping ways, the New Democrats would appear to have abandoned their regard for prudence and caution.

vpalmer@postmedia.com