Expect Alberta to file vague plan for oil pipeline to B.C. by July 1: observers
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With a deadline looming to submit a new oil pipeline proposal to the B.C. coast, and the Alberta government saying they will put forward a general corridor plan, project observers do not to expect a detailed package that has industry backing or a specific route.
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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney set July 1 as the date the application for a one-million barrel pipeline would be ready to submit to the federal government’s major projects office, which is meant to expedite projects to help diversify Canada’s exports away from the U.S. in the face of President Trump’s tariffs.
Smith has been strongly pushing for the pipeline to help diversify exports to Asian markets — and as a signal that Ottawa is responding to Alberta’s interests. Smith has not endorsed Alberta separating from Canada, but has put a question on a referendum this fall allowing voters to choose to remain a province or commence the legal process for a future binding separation vote.
Amy Janzwood, an assistant professor in political science and at the Bieler School of the Environment at McGill University, says she expects an announcement by Smith on July 1 is not likely to contain any of the substantive elements of regular submissions of projects of this nature to the Canada Energy Regulator, including a company that will build the pipeline, oil producer support, baseline studies or a detailed route.
“We are really going off book in terms of what a proposal … requires at this stage. So I’m expecting there to be very little substance,” said Janzwood, author of the 2025 book Mega Pipelines, Mega Resistance: Tar Sands, Social Movements, and the Politics of Energy Infrastructure.
Janzwood said it’s politically advantageous for the Smith government to have a flashy headline of some description declaring the need for an energy corridor, but expects the proposal to be extremely light on details.
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Smith’s hoped-for timeline includes the federal government designating the project to be in the national interest by the end of the year and a construction start as early as the fall of 2027.
But industry observers have been skeptical, noting there’s no industry backing and there are other pipeline projects already ready to go that total more than one million barrels.
If the project goes through northern B.C., which Alberta continues to indicate it prefers, the federal government would need to remove a tanker ban, which coastal First Nations staunchly oppose.
B.C. Premier David Eby has not been supportive of a new oil pipeline to the northwest B.C. coast, saying it would put at risk liquefied natural gas and critical mineral projects that have First Nations support at risk.
The pipeline is “really just used as a way to continue to push for everything else that the Smith government has been quite relentlessly demanding from the federal government in terms of rollback of existing climate policy,” observed Janzwood,
Her 2025 book outlines the battles over B.C.’s last two oil pipeline proposals, of which only the Trans Mountain expansion went ahead, and only after it was purchased by the federal government.
The cost for that project, completed in 2024 ballooned to $34 billion, more than six times its original price.
Bloomberg has reported that Rajan Sawhney, Alberta’s Indigenous relations minister, said the province will propose a “general corridor” for the project, with a specific route to be determined later through consultations with First Nations.
Edward Kallio, an executive adviser with Calgary-based energy analytics firm Incorrys, said he also doesn’t expect a submission will include a project proponent or oil-producer backing.
Kallio said he expects the Alberta government will be seeking federal government assistance to push through the corridor idea, including buy-in from First Nations.
In order for a pipeline project proponent — such as TC Energy or Enbridge — to take on a project such as this, they would have to know there was an approved route, First Nations buy-in and a clear regulatory pathway, said Kallio.
Enbridge’s Northern Gateway oil pipeline project through northern B.C. faced stiff resistance from First Nations, lost a major Federal Court case and was ultimately scuttled by the federal government under then-prime minister Justin Trudeau, who formalized a tanker ban off the north coast.
“You have to de-risk this,” said Kallio.
But he added it’s unclear to him how far the federal government is willing to go to support this project.
Kallio also noted the agreement between Alberta and Ottawa on the oil pipeline is tied to a massive carbon capture project in Alberta. He added that Jon McKenzie, the CEO of Cenovus Energy, one of Canada’s biggest oil producers, has said the push for the $20-billion-or-more carbon capture project and carbon tax in exchange for the oil pipeline to the B.C. Coast is uneconomical.
If Alberta were to push for a northern route, First Nations on the northern and central B.C. coast have already said that no offer of equity or ownership will change their opposition to an oil pipeline to the northern coast. The Coastal First Nations include the Haida, Gitga’at, Gitxaała, Kitasoo Xai’xais, Heiltsuk and Lax Kw’alaams.
“There is no technology that can clean up an oil spill at sea, and one spill could destroy our way of life,” said Marilyn Slett, president of the Coastal First Nations-Great Bear Initiative and the elected chief of the Heiltsuk Nation.
Officials with Coastal First Nations said Slett would not be commenting further until an announcement was made.
Some First Nations who were opposed to Enbridge’s Northern Gateway oil pipeline project through northern B.C. have not outright said they are against a new project, but have noted they would have to see a route and details before deciding.
