Vancouver’s mayoral election is exactly one month away, but some big money is already riding on the outcome.

Users on Polymarket – an online cryptocurrency-based prediction market – have generated more than $200,000 USD in trading volume on the race.

According to the site’s odds as of Thursday afternoon, the current favourite is incumbent Mayor Ken Sim.

The market gives Sim a 47 per cent of winning, with Green candidate Pete Fry sitting in second at 44 per cent, and Kareem Allam in third.

Everyone else is listed at roughly one per cent or lower.

But those numbers are not official polling results.

Instead, they represent odds determined by people buying and selling contracts tied to each candidate. It also accounts for trades for and against each outcome.

For example, Allam’s contract has generated nearly US$70,000 – the most of any candidate – but the market still gives him only a nine per cent chance of winning.

Dr. Cristie Ford, a professor at UBC’s Allard School of Law, says that distinction matters.

“There’s no automatic correlation between what eventual outcomes are going to be, or what people might believe about different candidates, and what the prediction markets are showing,” she told CityNews.

It’s important to note: election betting is banned in Canada. However, that doesn’t mean the money is coming from outside the country.

“All you need is a VPN in order to make it look as though you are not in the country,” Ford told CityNews.

And while that will make it virtually impossible to determine the exact location of each trade, Ford says the ethical concerns go far beyond gambling.

“It really undermines the democratic process. There’s lots of room for, functionally, indirect electoral interference through prediction markets.”

That could be a wealthy trader shifting the odds, or someone with money on the result who could have an incentive to spread misinformation and interfere in the campaign.

The odds alone could also influence voters.

“If you look at the prediction markets and you see that your candidate is polling very low, maybe that will mean that you’re not going to bother to go to the voting booth because you think it’s hopeless,” Ford said.

“Or your candidate’s polling really high, and so you think there’s no reason to. They’re going to succeed anyway.”

Supporters of prediction markets argue they can measure public sentiment and react to events more quickly than traditional polling.

Ford is not convinced.

“I’m in support of the existing regulations that just ban these outright.”

“I think that makes sense for public policy reasons.”

Vancouver voters will have the final say on Oct. 17.