The potential impact of threatened U.S. aluminum tariffs on Kitimat’s biggest employer has the town of 9,000’s mayor on edge.

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A week after giving Canada a one-month reprieve from 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian imports, U.S. President Donald Trump has put 25 per cent tariffs on all its aluminum and steel imports, including those from Canada.

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That will surely hit mining giant Rio Tinto’s B.C. Works, which runs a massive aluminum smelter in Kitimat, for which the U.S. has become an increasingly important market since the last time a Trump administration hit Canada with tariffs.

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“The aluminum industry has been not only the single largest employer in this region but the single most-consistent employer for, you know, seven decades now,” Kitimat Mayor Phil Germuth said.

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The smelter, which first opened in 1954, and was rebuilt in the early 2010s, employs some 1,500 people including its independently owned power station at Kemano, some 72 km south of Kitimat.

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During the smelter’s 70th anniversary in 2024, Rio Tinto’s Simon Pascoe said the facility’s impact extends beyond its immediate production by injecting $517 million into B.C.’s economy.

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Rio Tinto will now be caught in what will be more expansive tariffs than Trump launched in 2018 and are being levelled with none of the exceptions that were included in the last round. Trump has also raised the tariff on aluminum to the same 25 per cent rate set on steel.

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“We were being pummelled by both friend and foe alike,” Trump said Monday from the White House as he signed a proclamation putting the tariffs in place. “It’s time for our great industries to come back to America.”

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Canadian officials, however, were critical of Trump’s actions, with Canadian Chamber of Commerce president Candace Laing referring to the president as a destabilizing force in the global economy.

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“Today’s news makes it clear that perpetual uncertainty is here to stay,” Laing said.

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Provincial officials are expecting the tariffs to take effect March 4, with premiers, including B.C. Premier David Eby, heading to Washington D.C. on Tuesday to address the growing trade tensions between Canada and the U.S.

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The last time a Trump administration hit Canadian and European Union aluminum producers with 10 per cent tariffs in 2018, economists did notice a small decline in the value of aluminum exports from B.C., although Germuth said the town didn’t feel that big an impact.

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This round, however, is coming as B.C.’s aluminum exports to the U.S. have increased. B.C. trade figures show the province’s exports of unwrought aluminum reached $1.3 billion in 2024, which was only 2.4 per cent of total exports.

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However, 83 per cent of that aluminum, just over $1 billion, was exported to the U.S. That was a 24 per cent increase from $871 million in exports to the U.S. in 2023.

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The European Union was B.C.’s next biggest export market for aluminum in 2024, with companies there purchasing 11.4 per cent of the metal produced here, or $209 million. That, however, was down 35 per cent from $321 million worth in 2023.

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“Definitely (the impact) is going to be significant,” said trade economist Ken Kikkawa. “We don’t know how long that’s going to be, but this 25 per cent is a huge number. I don’t think any firm would have any buffer of profits that can absorb that.”

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The tariffs are part of Trump’s aggressive push to reset global trade with the intent that tariffs on foreign competitors will strengthen U.S. domestic manufacturing.

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Kikkawa, an assistant professor in the University of B.C.’s Sauder School of Business, added that it will take a long time for U.S. producers to increase their production, if their aluminum smelters have that capacity to ramp up.

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In the meantime, “definitely U.S. consumers, or buyers of these (metals) are going to be the ones that are going to be hit the most,” Kikkawa said.

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Economist Bryan Yu added that it is inevitable though that U.S. aluminum demand will shift to domestic supplies as “(tariffs) make us less competitive.”

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“It’s not good for Canada as well,” said Yu, chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union. “It’s not good for producers, and we will likely see less demand for our products just from tariffs alone.”

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In 2019, Yu said the dollar value of B.C.’s aluminum exports to the U.S. declined, which is an indicator of the toll the 10 per cent tariff took on the industry. Trade figures showed a 14 per cent decline between 2018, when B.C. exports to the U.S. were $505 million, and the $437 million in exports for 2019.