The British Columbia government heads into a legislative session this week with an $11.2 billion deficit, economic uncertainty, and plans to roll back a law on Indigenous rights — and an expert says none of that adds up to “winning conditions” in a potential early election.

David Black, an associate professor Royal Roads University, said an early election is “improbable,” even after the B.C. Green Party on Monday terminated its governing accord with the NDP government, which holds a one-seat majority.

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Black, who’s in the school of communication and culture at the university, says B.C.’s poor fiscal position and concerns about affordability stand in the way of an early election.

“I don’t think that the winning conditions are there yet for this government,” Black said. “The economy is not good, the fiscal situation is not good. We’re likely to see layoffs in the public sector, which is going to make the unions unhappy.”

He said in an interview that voters would punish the New Democrats for “rank opportunism” if they set off an election before the opposition B.C. Conservatives choose their new leader in May — two days after the legislature’s session is scheduled to end.

Both Eby and Finance Minister Brenda Bailey have themselves previewed cuts.

When Bailey spoke at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade on Feb. 2, she said her government will have to continue to find savings in various areas, including the civil service.

“I’m going to be the least popular person in the province for a while,” she said. “We are in serious times. This is a serious budget, and it’s work that we have to do.”

Speaking at a separate news conference on Feb. 9, Eby said that his government will continue to reduce the size of the public sector, adding that government had already downsized the public sector by 2,000 jobs with more on the horizon.

“There is room for us to reduce bureaucracy and administration while protecting core front line services for British Columbians, and that’s what we are going to do.”

Eby has already said that his government will amend the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, or DRIPA, in response to two court recent rulings that expand Indigenous rights, even as more than 100 First Nations and their organizations urge him to leave the law alone.

Black said Eby’s willingness to revise DRIPA reflects both a genuine desire to change the substance of legislation and take away a political issue.

“It is both about getting to the substance of it, trying to make a fix and get reconciliation forward, but also recognizing there’s a lot of public sensitivity around the loss of private title,” Black said.

“It is an issue of such delicacy,” Black added. “It could be very explosive for the NDP and may well help their political opponents, especially the Conservatives.”

The B.C. Conservative house leader A’aliya Warbus said Tuesday that their members will continue to push for the full repeal of DRIPA to create the necessary certainty once the session resumes.

The likelihood of an austerity budget contrasts with the NDP government’s promises to improve the economy through various natural resource projects.

Black said he expects Eby to tell a story during the coming session centred on the idea of nation-building, not unlike what Prime Minister Mark Carney has been doing on a national level.

“You would think in some sense they (the NDP) were a provincial Liberal government because of the ways in which they echo the messaging,” Black said.

The speech from the throne will be delivered on Thursday, while the budget will be released next Tuesday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 10, 2026.

Wolfgang Depner, The Canadian Press