Every vote in the provincial election counts equally, but some key ridings are expected to have more of an impact than others on who ends up controlling the legislature.
A small number of swing ridings could make a big difference for the provincial election’s final outcome, so which parts of B.C. will decide our next premier?
The BC Conservatives and BC NDP have been laser-focused on Surrey in recent days. Eby had six campaign stops south of the Fraser Wednesday, while Doerkson had four on Thursday.
Promises of a new SkyTrain extension to Newton emerged during the campaign, alongside those around new hospitals and health-care infrastructure. For a city that’s historically been neglected by provincial budgets, where’s all the love coming from?
The common belief among political pundits is that seat-rich Surrey will be where the provincial election is won or lost. The battleground city had five ridings decided by less than a thousand votes in 2024, which explains why the parties are fighting over it tooth and nail.
However, there are a number of key areas elsewhere in B.C. that could also decide our next premier.
“There may be some areas of the province we’re neglecting to think about,” said political commentator Hamish Telford.
Telford says North Coast ridings like Skeena, Bulkley Valley-Stikine, and North Island could surprise people.
“I’m interested to see how the DRIPA issue plays out there,” he said.
“DRIPA, of course, is an article of faith for the Conservatives, but those ridings have a high Indigenous population that are militantly opposed to the repeal of DRIPA, so I’m very interested to see how those ridings play out.”
A lot has changed on B.C.’s political map in the two short years since the last election, with CentreBC and OneBC splintering from the BC Conservatives.
Telford says OneBC Leader Dallas Brodie’s Vancouver-Quilchena will be a riding to watch on Saturday.
“I find it difficult to believe that Dallas Brodie will get re-elected there, but I believe there’s a Conservative and CentreBC candidate, a Green candidate,” he said.
“If the NDP vote holds in that riding, at about the high 30s like it was last time, that could be a riding they could steal.”
Telford predicts CentreBC Leader Elenore Sturko will be in tough to win her riding of Surrey South as well, but those two parties’ impact on the election could still be pronounced.
In 2024, the Greens were the only party that significantly split the vote, at the expense of the NDP. Telford points to Langley-Willowbrook as a riding where competition could change the math; last time around, NDP candidate Andrew Mercier lost by four percentage points, while the Greens picked up seven.
“Mercier is running again, against the incumbent,” he said.
“There is a Green candidate, but there’s also a OneBC candidate. So how does the vote-splitting in that riding play out, and does either of the big parties get hurt more than the other one?”
The final factor that could play a role in swinging key ridings is voter fatigue. With many British Columbians exhausted by the duelling municipal and provincial elections, turnout for advanced voting is down significantly – especially in Surrey.
